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Economical impacts of corona virus /Covid-19 Tags: Reverted በንፋስ ስልክ -የሞባይል ድረገፅ Advanced mobile edit |
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መስመር፡ 1፦
CHAPTER ONE
1. Introduction
1.1. Background Information
Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (China-WHO Joint Mission, 2020). The disease was first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei China, and has since spread globally, resulting in the 2019–2020 corona virus pandemic (Hui, D. S et al, 2020). The common symptoms of Covid-19 include fever, dry cough, and difficulty in breathing but muscle pain, sputum production, diarrhea, and sore throat are less common (Centre for Disease control and Prevention, 2020). While the majority of cases result in mild symptoms, some progress to pneumonia and multi-organ failure.
The virus is typically spread from one person to another via respiratory droplets produced during coughing (Centers for Disease control and Prevention, 2020). It may also be spread from touching contaminated surfaces and then touching one's face (Centers for Disease control and Prevention, 2020). The virus can live on surfaces up to 72 hours (National Institutes of Health, 2020). The time from exposure to onset of symptoms is generally between two and fourteen days, with an average of five days (Centers for Disease control and Prevention, 2020 Zhou et al, 2020).
The recommended measures to prevent infection include frequent hand washing, social distancing (maintaining physical distance from others), and keeping hands away from the face (Perlman, 2020). The use of sanitized masks is recommended for suspect persons and their caregivers, but not for the general public, although simple cloth masks may be used by those who desire them (Tang et al, 2020; Li et al, 2020). There is no vaccine or specific antiviral treatment for COVID-19. It can be cured by the treatment of symptoms, supportive care, isolation, and experimental measures. In this paper, I estimate the economic impact of the COVID-19 and in particular, the impact of the lockdown to the world economy. Simulations were used to quantify the impact and establish the magnitude of the pandemic on the various sectors, the gross domestic product and domestic consumption.
The COVID-19 pandemic is creating considerable social and economic havoc globally. Between the first known case in December 2019 and 16 may 2021 until this project proposed, the virus infected more than 162,530,764 people and killed more than 3,369,602 worldwide (WHO 2021). To reduce further spread of the virus and to limit the possible long-term impact of the pandemic on the economy, countries have introduced various degrees of response measures, including restrictions on movement of people and on activities. While these restrictions are expected to reduce the spread of the virus, they are also anticipated to have significant direct or indirect impacts on the economy.
As a result, the world economy is experiencing an unprecedented downturn as the response measures, including partial or full shutdowns of economic activities, simultaneously affect both domestic and global value chains.
The estimates of the economic impact of COVID-19 from our analysis pertain only to the channels identified and do not reflect the full impact of the pandemic on the economy. We do not examine a number of other potentially important channels through which COVID-19 might affect the economy, including a sharp drop in imports of consumption items, a decline in foreign direct investment, sharp falloffs in government grants and loans from abroad, and restrictions on a number of domestic activities, including for restaurants and bars, transportation services, sporting events, and markets. Hence, in light of these limitations on the scope of our analysis, we suggest that our results be interpreted with caution. Despite this limitation and the usual caveats recognized in using multiplier models to estimate the impact of economic shocks, this study has important implications for guiding the design and implementation of response measures by providing an informed assessment of the impact of the pandemic.
To support local production, selective mechanisms to support imports of strategic intermediate inputs should be put in place by government. Stimulus packages targeted at the manufacturing sector at all scales of production are needed as a part of efforts to recover the many jobs lost early in the COVID-19 crisis and to expand employment opportunities across the economy.
The COVID-19 pandemic is resulting in a major global recession (World Bank 2020b). Widespread fear of contracting the virus combined with strict policy measures to contain its spread have caused severe disruptions in livelihoods. Virtually all high-income countries are reporting large decreases in economic output, massive increases in unemployment rates and government deficits, and large downward adjustments in households' views on their financial situation over the near future (Ambrocio 2020; OECD 2020).While analysts in high-income countries can base their research on near real-time economic data, their counterparts in low-income countries have to work with considerably more limited information. In low-income countries, economic information rests heavily on surveys in which enumerators visit households, firms, or markets to gather information about household consumption and income levels, firm profits, and prices. In a strongly connected and integrated world, the impacts of the disease beyond mortality (those who die) and morbidity (those who are unable to work for a period of time) has become apparent since the outbreak. Amidst the slowing down of the Chinese economy with interruptions to production, the functioning of global supply chains has been disrupted. Companies across the world, irrespective of size, that are dependent upon inputs from China have started experiencing contractions in production. Transport being limited and even restricted among countries has further slowed global economic activities. Most importantly, some panic among consumers and firms has distorted usual consumption patterns and created market anomalies. Global financial markets have also been responsive to the changes and global stock indices have plunged.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
The COVID-19 virus is unique among human corona viruses since it has high transmissibility, uncontrollable fatal deaths in high-risk age groups, and has ability to cause huge social disharmony and economic loss. The present scenario of increasing Covid-19 patients and number of deaths per day shows that the global population seems to be susceptible to this virus. As the animal origin of the COVID-19 virus is unknown at present, the risk of reintroduction into previously infected areas is also high. The research will answer the following questions:
What are the knowledge and attitudes of human beings towards the Covid-19 disease?
What are the economical impacts of corona virus on world’s economy?
How World can prevent the pandemic of corona virus?
What measurements have to be taking to control corona virus?
1.3. Objectives
1.3.1. General Objective
To assess the knowledge and attitude on Corona virus among human beings.
1.3.2. Specific Objective
To identify the economical impacts of the covid-19.
To assess the knowledge about covid-19.
To develop the attitudes of humans about Covid-19.
To assess the prevention measures followed by the people.
1.4. Methodology of Research
1.4.1 Data collection techniques
Data will be collected by reading journals, books, internet and flowing mass media.
1.4.2 Source of Data
The Project work design will be reviewing related causes and media news are used to investigate the economical impacts of covid-19.If necessary picture and diagram will be used for this project work.
1.4.3 Sample Size and Techniques
The project will be done by reading journals, using internet, arranging day to day screen data from media and from person who works in the field that relates with it and so on. After the above things done the gathered information are analyzed, interpreted, and wrote away that people will easily understand and use it.
1.5 Significant of the Project
The project is believed to know the economical impacts of corona virus disease [covid-19]. Some significant of this project are the following:
Develope basic knowledge and drawback about covid-19.
To motivate everybody to protect oneself from this killer and live changer virus.
It may guide others when students work with such project as reference material.
1.6 Scope and Limitation of the study
1.6.1 Scope of the study
In this project I will do concepts, reasons, facts related to economical impacts of corona virus. The economical impacts of corona virus may have large portion to study, but it restricted by only some parts.
1.6.2 Limitation of the study
When I proceed or conduct this project there are problems facing at the beginning up to end of this proposal paper. Some of the limitations are:
@ Lack of reference material
@Lack of internet service reviewing some other related notes.
@ Financial or budget problems.
1.7 Organizational structure of the paper
1.7.1 Time schedule
The time plan is explaining how to the investigation expects to carry the project. It is duration of the activities from the topic selection to the final presentation. The following table shows time schedule for each activity per month.
NoNumber of activity to be performedFeb
2021GCMarch
2021GCApril
2021GCMay
2021GC1Selection and submission of paper topic*2Project development**3Discuss with draft paper**4Research writing***5Edition after feedback**6Writing normal project**7Project development**8Feedback and discuss with advisor***9Project writing for submission***10Final project submission and presentation*
1.7.2Cost Budget
This is the indication of total expenditure to fill the gaps of the project or to complete the project work.
Items descriptionQuantitySingle cost in BIRRTotal cost in BIRRFlash1250250Secretary/typing110001000Printing423126Paper1raw250250Pan 51050Pencil155Photo copy285170Binding material22550Mobile card / for data25 BIRR300 Per month1200
CHAPTER TWO
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Related Literature Review
Many studies have found that population health, as measured by life expectancy, infant and child mortality and maternal mortality is positively related to economic welfare and growth. There are many channels through which an infectious disease outbreak influences the economy. Direct and indirect economic costs of illness are often the subject of the health economics studies on the burden of disease. The conventional approach uses information on deaths (mortality) and illness that prevents work (morbidity) to estimate the loss of future income due to death and disability. Losses of time and income by carriers and direct expenditure on medical care and supporting services are added to obtain the estimate of the economic costs associated with the disease. This conventional approach underestimates the true economic costs of infectious diseases of epidemic proportions which are highly transmissible and for which there is no vaccine (e.g. HIV/AIDS, SARS and pandemic influenza).
The experience from these previous disease outbreaks provides valuable information on how to think about the implications of COVID-19.The HIV/AIDS virus affects households, businesses and governments - through changed labor supply decisions; efficiency of labor and household incomes; increased business costs and foregone investment in staff training by firms; and increased public expenditure on health care and support of disabled and children. Amidst the significant public health risk COVID-19 poses to the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared a public health emergency of international concern.
The HIV/AIDS virus affects households, businesses and governments - through changed labor supply decisions; efficiency of labor and household incomes; increased business costs and foregone investment in staff training by firms; and increased public expenditure on health care and support of disabled and children orphaned by AIDS, by the public sector (Haacker, 2004).
The effects of AIDS are long-term but there are clear prevention measures that minimize the risks of acquiring HIV, and there are documented successes in implementing prevention and education programs, both in developed and in the developing world. Treatment is also available, with modern antiretroviral therapies extending the life expectancy and improving the quality of life of HIV patients by many years if not decades. Studies of the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS include (Cuddington, 1993a; Cuddington, 1993b; Cuddington et al., 1994; Cuddington and Hancock, 1994; Haacker, 2002a; Haacker, 2002b; Over, 2002; Freire, 2004; The World Bank, 2006). Several computable general equilibrium (CGE) macroeconomic models have been applied to study the impact of AIDS (Arndt and Lewis, 2001; Bell et al., 2004).
The influenza virus is by far more contagious than HIV, and the onset of an epidemic can be sudden and unexpected. It appears that the COVID-19 virus is also very contagious. The fear of 1918-1919 Spanish influenza, the “deadliest plague in history,” with its extreme severity and gravity of clinical symptoms, is still present in the research and general community (Barry, 2004). The fear factor was influential in the world’s response to SARS – a coronavirus not previously detected in humans (Shannon and Willoughby, 2004; Peiris et al., 2004). It is also reflected in the response to COVID-19. Entire cities in world have closed and travel restrictions placed by countries on people entering from infected countries.
The fear of an unknown deadly virus is similar in its psychological effects to the reaction to biological and other terrorism threats and causes a high level of stress, often with longer-term consequences (Hyams et al., 2002). A large number of people would feel at risk at the onset of a pandemic, even if their actual risk of dying from the disease is low.
Individual assessment of the risks of death depends on the probability of death, years of life lost, and the subjective discounting factor. Viscusi et al. (1997) rank pneumonia and influenza as the third leading cause of the probability of death (following cardiovascular disease and cancer). Sunstein (1997) discusses the evidence that an individual’s willingness to pay to avoid death increases for causes perceived as “bad deaths” – especially dreaded, uncontrollable, involuntary deaths and deaths associated with high externalities and producing distributional inequity. Based on this literature, it is not unreasonable to assume that individual perception of the risks associated with the new influenza pandemic virus similar to Spanish influenza in its virulence and the severity of clinical symptoms can be very high, especially during the early stage of the pandemic when no vaccine is available and antivirals are in short supply. This is exactly the reaction revealed in two surveys conducted in Taiwan during the SARS outbreak in 2003 (Liu et al., 2005), with the novelty, salience and public concern about SARS contributing to the higher than expected willingness to pay to prevent the risk of infection.
Studies of the macroeconomic effects of the SARS epidemic in 2003 found significant effects on economies through large reductions in consumption of various goods and services, an increase in business operating costs, and re-evaluation of country risks reflected in increased risk premiums. Shocks to other economies were transmitted according to the degree of the countries’ exposure, or susceptibility, to the disease. Despite a relatively small number of cases and deaths, the global costs were significant and not limited to the directly affected countries (Lee and McKibbin, 2003). Other studies of SARS include (Chou et al., 2004) for Taiwan, (Hai et al., 2004) for China and (Sui and Wong, 2004) for Hong Kong.
There are only a few studies of economic costs of large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases to date: Schoenbaum (1987) is an example of an early analysis of the economic impact of influenza.
CHAPTER THREE
3. Meaning, mode of transmission and Economical impacts of corona virus
3.1. Epidemiologic Characteristics
3.1.1. Mode of Transmission
The person-to-person spread of SARS-CoV-2 is thought to occur mainly via respiratory droplets, resembling the spread of influenza. With droplet transmission, virus released in the respiratory secretions when a person with infection coughs, sneezes, or talks can infect another person if it makes direct contact with the mucous membranes. The infection can also occur if a person touches an infected surface and then touches his or her eyes, nose, or mouth. Droplets typically do not travel more than six feet (about two meters) and do not linger in the air however, SARS-CoV-2 remained viable in aerosols under experimental conditions for at least three hours (Van et al, 2020).
3.1.2. Source of Transmission
The study in Wuhan shows that the Covid-19 outbreak was associated with a seafood market that sold live animals, where most patients had worked or visited and which was subsequently closed for disinfection (WHO Report, 2020). However, as the outbreak progressed, person-to-person spread became the main mode of transmission. Although patients with symptomatic COVID-19 have been the main source of transmission, recent study suggests that asymptomatic patients and patients in their incubation period are also carriers of SARS-CoV-2 (Chan et al. 2020; Rothe et al. 2020). This epidemiologic feature of COVID-19 has made its control extremely challenging, as it is difficult to identify and quarantine these patients in time, which can result in an accumulation of SARS-CoV-2 in communities (The Chinese Preventive Medicine Association 2020)(Meng1 et al, 2020).
3.1.3. Incubation period
The incubation period for COVID-19 is thought to be within 14 days following exposure, with most cases occurring approximately four to five days after exposure (Li et al, 2020; Chan et al, 2020). People at High Risk of Infection: Individuals of any age can acquire Covid-19 infection, although adults of middle age and older are most commonly affected.
3.1.4 Clinical manifestations
Initial presentation: Pneumonia appears to be the most frequent serious manifestation of infection, characterized primarily by fever, cough, dyspnea, and bilateral infiltrates on chest imaging (Guan et al, 2020). There are no specific clinical features that can yet reliably distinguish COVID-19 from other viral respiratory infections.
3.1.5 Site of care
3.1.5.1. Home care: Home management is appropriate for patients with mild infection who can be adequately isolated in the outpatient setting. Management of such patients should focus on prevention of transmission to others. Outpatients with COVID-19 should stay at home and try to separate themselves from other people and animals in the household. They should wear a facemask when in the same room (or vehicle) as other people and when presenting to health care settings. Disinfection of frequently touched surfaces is also important. The optimal duration of home isolation is uncertain.
3.1.5.2 Hospital care: Some patients with suspected or documented COVID-19 should be treated in the hospital. Management of such patients consists of ensuring appropriate infection control and supportive care. Patients with severe disease often need oxygenation support. Symptomatic patients should also be asked about recent travel or potential COVID-19 exposure in the prior 14 days to determine the need for evaluation for COVID-19.
3.1.5.3 Vaccination:Vaccines to prevent covid-19 are perhaps the best hope for ending the pandemic. The vaccines prevent you:
Getting covid-19
Be coming seriously ill or dying due to covid-19
From spreading covid-19 to others
From spreading and replicating
Currently they are several covid-19vaccines in clinical trials.
Vaccines with FDA /Food and Drug Administration emergency use authorization includes:
PfizerTech COVID-19 vaccine which is 95% effective for persons 16 old and above.
Moderena COVID-19 vaccine which is 94% effective in preventing the covid-19 sypotoms.This is for people age 18 and above.
Janssen/Johonsen & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine it is in trials which is 66% effective in preventing covid-19 virus with symptoms which is for people age 18 above.
A COVID-19 vaccine can cause mild side effects after the first or second dose, including:
Pain, redness or swelling where the shot was given
Fever
Fatigue
Headache
Muscle pain
Chills
Joint pain
Nausea
Vomiting
Feeling unwell
Swollen lymph nodes
You'll likely be monitored for 15 minutes after getting a COVID-19 vaccine to see if you have an immediate reaction. Most side effects happen within the first three days after vaccination and typically last only one to two days.
Serious side effects of the Janssen/Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine can occur within three weeks of vaccination and require emergency care. Possible symptoms include:
Shortness of breath
Persistent stomach pain
Severe or persistent headaches or blurred vision
Chest pain
Leg swelling
Easy bruising or tiny red spots on the skin beyond the injection site
A COVID-19 vaccine may cause side effects similar to signs and symptoms of COVID-19. If you've been exposed to COVID-19 and you develop symptoms more than three days after getting vaccinated or the symptoms last more than two days, self-isolate and get tested.
3.2. The GDP effect of COVID-19
In the absence of any policy responses, the World economy is expected to experience a loss of between 5.6% of its annual GDP during the 2021GC slowdown through the three external impact channels compared to a no-COVID situation. These effects are assumed to increase linearly as the duration of the shock increases with the same level of direct impact on the channels considered. Thus, the GDP cost of the pandemic could rise to between 2.9 and 4.5 percent if the pandemic-related disruptions continue for 6 months. Given the original GDP growth projection for the world’s economy for 2021 of 5.6 percent, this suggests that annual growth for the economy for 2021 will remain positive even under a shock of above 1 year duration.
With the previous experience of pandemics, governments across the world have exercised a stronger caution towards the outbreak by taking measures, such as strengthening health screening at ports and investments in strengthening healthcare infrastructure, to prevent the outbreak reaching additional countries. They have also responded by increasing health expenditures to contain the spread.
The shocks which make up the pandemic cause a sharp drop in consumption and investment. The decline in aggregate demand, together with the original risk shocks because a sharp drop in equity markets. The funds from equity markets are partly shifted into bonds, partly into cash and partly overseas depending on which markets are most affected. Central banks respond by cutting interest rates which drive together with the increased demand for bonds from the portfolio shift drives down the real interest rate. Equity markets drop sharply both because of the rise in risk but also because of the expected economic slowdown and the fall in expected profits.
The improvement in the trade balance between countries deterioration in the worlds trade balance reflect the global reallocation of financial capital as a result of the shock. Capital flows out of severely affected economies like China and other developing and emerging economies and into safer advanced economies like the United States, Europe and Australia. This movement of capital tends to appreciate the exchange rate of countries that are receiving capital and depreciate the exchange rates of countries that are losing capital. The depreciation of the exchange rate increases exports and reduced imports in the countries losing capital and hence leads to the current account adjustment that is consistent with the capital account adjustment.
The global GDP total had shrunk by nearly $22 trillion as of January 2021, during the course of the pandemic. According to Chief IMF Economist Gita Gopinath, the long-term consequences have not fully played out but could be expected to be in the trillions from 2020 to 2025.
Post-COVID economic recovery prospects are high, and most countries are expected to see higher than usual economic growth. This is different from conventional economic recessions, according to the IMF. The China, India, Asian nations and other emerging Asian economies are expected to continue growing most significantly throughout the 2020s, and is expected to dominate global economic growth following the pandemic.
These results are very sensitive to the assumptions in the model, to the shocks we feed in and to the assumed macroeconomic policy responses in each country. Central banks are assumed to respond according to a Henderson-Mckibbin-Taylor rule which differs across countries (see Mckibbin and Triggs (2018)). Fiscal authorities are allowing automatic stabilizers to increase budget deficits but cover addition debt servicing costs with a lump-sum tax levied on households over time. In addition, there is the fiscal spending increase assumed in the shock design outlined above. Other areas of the economy which are not sectors per se, but, with the direct impact on the economy are: aggregate consumption and fiscal stance. As narrated in section 2 of the paper, domestic private consumption is heavily affected by the COVID-19 and specifically the lockdown, as the informal business owners went into an “income break” during the lock down and hence an expected break in trading hours and decline in private consumption. The closure of the non-essential services and all other affected by the lockdown including loss of jobs add to the decline in private consumption. Erosion of wealth resulting from the loss of value in assets such as stocks also have negative impact on consumption. Price Water House Coopers Australia (2020) estimates the loss in consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa to be USD26.2 billion.
Investment is likely to decrease, since future uncertainty and poor expectation of future profitability discourages decision making on investment. UNCTAD (2020) estimates that global Foreign direct Investment (FDI) flows could fall by between 30% to 40% because of the spread of COVID-19 (Chidede, 2020). Accordingly, FDI inflows in Africa is estimated to reduce by 15% with the most affected countries being those in the energy and tertiary industries because of the oil price drop as well as the airline and tourism industries, due to travel cancellations and bans.
Government spending is expected to increase, as governments mostly use fiscal stimulus to react to shocks. Governments’ spending is expected to increase globally, which typically can afford result in deficits as most governments apply fiscal stimulus measures to counteract the fall in consumer spending.
Net export is expected to decline owing to disruptions in the supply chains, border closures and limited markets for exports due to weak global demand as well as the depreciated dollar against foreign currencies. While exports are expected to go down, imports are expected to up slightly due to importation of the needed supplies mainly in the health sector.
As the pandemic has struck in developing countries, we have seen at least three immediate reactions: a sharp and understandable focus on public health issues; an international development community, both resident and global, that has quickly updated its risk assessments and activated business continuity plans; and the most advanced parts of the private sector, whether domestic or international, swiftly adjusting their operations in response to escalating risk. Something critical, though, has been lost amid all of this activity.If any or, in the worst case, all of these and other critical institutions and systems start degrading significantly or even falling apart, then the consequences would be severe. The crisis would turn swiftly into catastrophe and in the most fragile contexts, potentially collapse. Yet, many developing countries and many governmental entities do not have the rudiments of risk management in place, including business continuity plans for critical government functions. And the thought of stress testing the resilience of public institutions to systemic shock is unheard of in most places.
3.2.1 Agriculture
A. Food crisis contexts
In food crisis countries, up to 80 percent of the population relies on agriculture for their livelihoods. Therefore, any further disruptions to food production and related value chains, for example in the form of reduced availability of critical inputs or restricted access to lands or markets, could be catastrophic for vulnerable populations.
The agriculture sector plays an important role in influencing migratory patterns. Transhumant pastoral populations are likely to be hard hit by any border closures, as they rely on seasonal movements of livestock for their food and income. The disruption of traditional and western patterns and the creation of new ones may lead to tensions and even violent conflicts between resident and pastoralist communities, resulting in local displacement and increased levels of poverty and food insecurity.
According to FAO, it is crucial to maintain and support the continuous functioning of local food markets, value chains and agri-food systems in food crisis contexts, including through ongoing and scaled up support to food processing, transport, marketing, and so forth; strengthening of local producers’ groups to maintain negotiation power and access to markets; and, advocating for trade corridors to remain open as much as possible during COVID-19 related movement restrictions.
3.2.2 Financial markets
Economic turmoil associated with the corona virus pandemic has wide-ranging and severe impacts upon financial markets, including stock, bond and commodity (including crude oil and gold) markets. Major events included the Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war that resulted in a collapse of crude oil prices and a stock market crash in March 2020. The United Nations Development Programme expects a US$220 billion reduction in revenue in developing countries, and expects COVID-19's economic impact to last for months or even years. Some expect natural gas prices to fall.
During the early phase of COVID in April and May, there was a significant correlation between the extent of the outbreak and volatility in financial and stock markets. The broader effects of this volatility impacted credit markets, and save for government interventions and central banks pursuing quantitative easing, would have led to more significant economic downturns.
3.2.3 Manufacturing
New vehicle sales in the United States have declined by 40%.The American Big Three have all shut down their US factories. The German automotive industry came into the crisis after having already suffered from the Dieselgate-scandal, as well as competition from electric cars. Boeing and Airbus suspended production at some factories. A survey conducted by the British Plastics Federation (BPF) explored how COVID-19 is impacting manufacturing businesses in the United Kingdom (UK). Over 80% of respondents anticipated a decline in turnover over the next 2 quarters, with 98% admitting concern about the negative impact of the pandemic on business operations.
3.2.4 The arts, entertainment and sport
The epidemic had a sudden and substantial impact on the arts and cultural heritage sectors worldwide. The global health crisis and the uncertainty resulting from it profoundly affected organisations' operations as well as individuals – both employed and independent – across the sector. By March 2020, across the world most cultural institutions had been indefinitely closed (or at least with their services radically curtailed) exhibitions, events and performances cancelled or postponed. Many individuals temporarily or permanently lost contracts or employment with varying degrees of warning and financial assistance available. Equally, financial stimulus from governments and charities for artists, have provided greatly differing levels of support, depending on the sector and the country. In countries such as Australia, where the arts contributed to about 6.4% of GDP, effects on individuals and the economy have been significant.
The pandemic has forced to switch the plans globally. All fashion, sport, and technology events have been canceled or have changed to be online. While the monetary impact on the travel and trade industry is yet to be estimated, it is likely to be in the billions and increasing.
A.Cinema
The pandemic has impacted the film industry. Across the world and to varying degrees, cinemas have been closed, festivals have been cancelled or postponed, and film releases have been moved to future dates. As cinemas closed, the global box office dropped by billions of dollars, while streaming became more popular and the stock of Netflix rose; the stock of film exhibitors dropped dramatically. Almost all blockbusters to be released after the March opening weekend were postponed or cancelled around the world, with film productions also halted. Massive losses in the industry have been predicted.
B. Sport
Most major sporting events were cancelled or postponed, including the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo, which were postponed on 24 March 2020 until 2021.
C. Television
The COVID-19 pandemic has shut down or delayed production of television programs in several countries. However, a joint report from Apptopia and Braze showed a 30.7% increase in streaming sessions worldwide on platforms such as Disney+, Netflix, and Hulu during the month of March.
D. Video games
The pandemic also affected the video game sector to a smaller degree. As the outbreak appeared in China first, supply chains affected the manufacturing and production of some video game consoles, delaying their releases and making current supplies scarcer. As the outbreak and pandemic spread, several keystone trade events, including E3 2020, were cancelled over concerns of further spread. The economic impact on the video game sector is not expected to be as large as in film or other entertainment sectors as much of the work in video game production can be decentralised and performed remotely, and products distributed digitally to consumers regardless of various national and regional lockdowns on businesses and services.
3.2.5 Medicine
The pandemic had an interesting impact regarding medicine-related elements such as plastic surgery.Why plastic-surgery demand is booming amid lockdown
3.2.6 Publishing
The pandemic is predicted to have a dire effect on local newspapers in the United States, where many were already severely struggling beforehand.
In light of the public health situation in which includes afflicted regions where retail sectors deemed non-essential have been ordered closed for the interim, Diamond Comic Distributors announced on 24 March 2020 a full suspension of distributing published material and related merchandise as 1 April 2020 until further notice. As Diamond has a near-monopoly on printed comic book distribution, this is described as an "extinction-level event" that threatens to drive the entire specialized comic book retail sector out of business with that one move. As a result, publishers like IDW Publishing and Dark Horse Comics have suspended publication of their periodicals while DC Comics is exploring distribution alternatives including an increased focus on online retail of digital material.
3.2.7 Retail
The pandemic has impacted the retail sector. Shopping centres around the world responded by reducing hours or closing down temporarily. As of 18 March 2020, the footfall to shopping centres fell by up to 30%, with significant impact in every continent. Additionally, product demand exceeded supply for many consumables, resulting in empty retail shelves. In Australia, the pandemic has provided a new opportunity for daigou shoppers to re-sell into the China market. "The virus crisis, while frightening, has a silver lining".
Some retailers have employed contactless home delivery or curbside pickup for items purchased through e-commerce sites. By April, retailers had started implementing "retail to go" models where consumers could pick up their orders. An estimated 40% of shoppers were shopping online and choosing to pick up in-store, a behavior that had suddenly doubled as compared to the previous year.
Small-scale farmers have been embracing digital technologies as a way to directly sell produce, and community-supported agriculture and direct-sell delivery systems are on the rise.
In mid-April, Amazon confirmed that workers at over half of its 110 U.S. warehouses had been diagnosed with corona virus.
3.3. The impact of COVID-19 on factor income
The decline in economic activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic ultimately causes declines is factor returns. The role of the export channel on changes in factor income is reflected in a possible strong decline in returns to land. Labor income is estimated to decline by between 4.4 and 8.6 percent due to the economy wide effect of the change in exports, imports (of strategic goods), and remittance flows by the simulated levels over up in 2021GC period. Overall, local financial markets reacted to the COVID-19 shocks and continue to do so steadily. Projections are that, the financial markets may remain extremely volatile for a significant period, at the very least till the number of infected cases start coming down. Therefore, if continue to see a rise in infected case, the local financial markets situations could get far worse in response, despite the recent and possible further rate cuts announced by the World Bank as well as the economic stimulus announced by IMF 2021. The expectation is therefore that, the two, among Countries interventions may have a significant role to play in calming local financial markets volatilities.
3.4. The impact of COVID-19 on household welfare
The slowdown in economic activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic can affect the population through its effects on the availability of commodities and purchasing capacity. The real incomes of A household reflects purchasing capacity. Reports changes in real incomes among rural and urban households and for the poor and non-poor. Poor households are those in the lowest two income quintiles.
The hardest-hit western country so far is Italy, which has particularly strong economic ties to China. Northern Italy is the new Wuhan (the Chinese megacity where the coronavirus first emerged). With its health system overwhelmed, the Italian government has slammed on the brakes, shutting down the retail economy and quarantining the entire country. All shops except pharmacies and grocery stores are closed. People have been instructed to stay at home and may enter public places only for necessary shopping or commuting to work. Many public and private debt obligations (such as housing rents and interest payments) have been suspended. Italy is attempting to slow down the economic clock until the corona virus dies out.
Meanwhile, although Germany has had very few corona virus deaths so far, the number of infections is now skyrocketing as quickly as anywhere else. In response to the crisis, the German government has introduced a short-time work allowance and granted generous credit assistance, guarantees or tax deferrals for distressed companies. Public events across the country have been cancelled and schoolchildren have been told to stay at home. And Austria, for its part, has long since closed its border with Italy. Austrian schools, universities and most shops have also been closed. Initially, France pursued a more relaxed approach, but it has now also shuttered its schools, restaurants and shops, as has Spain. Denmark, Poland and the Czech Republic have closed their borders with Germany.
US, has declared a national state of emergency. Congress has approved an $8.3bn (£6.7bn) emergency programme to fund efforts to contain the epidemic. Even larger sums are awaiting passage through the Senate. The federal government has also barred foreign travellers, first from China and Iran, and now from Europe.
Globally, not all responses to the crisis have been well targeted, and others have not been strong enough. Most worryingly, some governments have convinced themselves that they can merely slow down the spread of the virus, rather than taking the steps needed to halt it entirely. The predictable overcrowding of hospitals in many heavily affected areas has already exposed the folly of such complacency.
On the economic front, a severe recession can no longer be avoided, and some economists are already calling for governments to introduce measures to shore up aggregate demand. But that recommendation is inadequate, given that the global economy is suffering from an unprecedented supply shock. People are not at work because they are sick or quarantined. In such a situation, demand stimulus will merely boost inflation, potentially leading to stagflation (weak or falling GDP growth alongside rising prices), as happened during the 1970s oil crisis, when another important production input was in short supply.
Worse, measures targeting the demand side could even be counterproductive, because they would encourage interpersonal contact, thus undermining the effort to limit transmission of the virus. What good would it do to give Italians money for shopping trips, when the government closes the shops and forces everyone to stay at home?
The same arguments apply to liquidity support. The world is already awash in liquidity, with nominal interest rates close to or below zero nearly everywhere. More interest-rate cuts into deep-red territory might help stock markets, but they also could trigger a run on cash.
The brutal decline in economic activities that epidemiologists say is required make crashing stock markets inevitable, given that central banks’ policy of excessively cheap money and pooled liabilities caused an unsustainable bubble. Because they used up their ammunition at inopportune moments, central banks bear responsibility for the bubble that has now burst.
3.5. The impact of COVID-19 on household poverty
The poverty effects are In generating the poverty estimates, we assume that economic restrictions during the pandemic period translate into declines in household income that are reflected in declines in household consumption expenditure. In reality, some employers would have continued to pay workers during the economic slowdown or households would have been able to draw on savings or sale assets to sustain consumption. Consequently, our result may overstate the actual state of poverty at the household level measured as the ability of people to access food.
Households will deplete their savings to smooth consumption over time, in order to maximize their well-being. There are not using all their liquid assets, because other shock may affect them during or after the COVID-19 crisis, so that the utility derived from remaining savings have an increasing value as they are used in the current shock. One important simplification here is that people are assumed to know in advance the duration of the containment phase. In reality, one challenge for households is to decide how to manage their savings in the context of a highly uncertain crisis, both in duration and magnitude. The assumption that the duration is known means that the results from the analysis are conservative, underestimating well-being and poverty consequences from containment.
3.6. The Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Growth
Concerning economic growth, the COVID-19 pandemic has a diverse impact on economic growth, considering the level of stringency to curtail the disease's spread to reduce the infection. However, increasing stringency positively supports increasing economic growth where there is an increase in death. Therefore, a percentage base point increase in the stringency index score could increase economic growth. The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated the global economy, which has rendered many of the world's population impoverished. Moreover, the pandemic has generated some uncertainties regarding economic and social policies. This phenomenon is lately the brunt of every government across the globe. This present study seeks to evaluate the pandemic's impact on poverty alleviation and the global GDP by considering individual countries' heterogeneous effects in a panel study. The motivation is to unravel the social and economic effects on the global economy.
Many people's stringency and the contraction of the disease have inversely affected poverty alleviation and economic growth. Nevertheless, for the deaths recorded so far positively affects both poverty alleviation and economic growth.
This development signals the essence of controlling population growth as it impedes economic growth and poverty alleviation. The study recommends that governments invest in health and education improvement and stimulate their economies to create employment that could propagate growth to improve poverty alleviation and economic growth stability, as well as the prevalence of conflicts, corruption and the rule of law.
One of the most easily available indicators of the expected global economic impacts of COVID-19 has been movements in financial market indices. Since the commencement of the outbreak, financial markets continue to respond to daily developments regarding the outbreak across the world. Particularly, stock markets have been demonstrating investor awareness of industry-specific (unsystematic) impacts.
In a strongly connected and integrated world, the impacts of the disease beyond mortality (those who die) and morbidity (those who are incapacitated or caring for the incapacitated and unable to work for a period) has become apparent since the outbreak. Amidst the slowing down of the Chinese economy with interruptions to production, the functioning of global supply chains has been disrupted. Companies across the world, irrespective of size, dependent upon inputs have started experiencing contractions in production. Transport being limited and even restricted among countries has further slowed down global economic activities. Most importantly, some panic among consumers and firms has distorted usual consumption patterns and created market anomalies. Global financial markets have also been responsive to the changes and global stock indices have plunged. Amidst the global turbulence, in an initial assessment, the International Monetary Fund expects to slow down by many percentage points compared to its initial growth target, also slowing down global growth by percent points.
3.7 Prevention ways of corona virus
The provision of safe water, sanitation, and hygienic conditions is essential to protecting human health during all infectious disease outbreaks, including the COVID-19 outbreak. Ensuring good and consistently applied WASH and waste management practices in communities, homes, schools, marketplaces, and health care facilities will help prevent human-to-human transmission of the COVID-19 virus.If not well managed, movement restrictions and lock down enforcements will disproportionately affect poor households in underserved areas, who depend on daily wages to pay for safe drinking water for their households amongst other daily needs.
Measures taken as part of the response to COVID-19 could result in risks to a diverse range of rights such as the right to freedom of assembly, the right to freedom of movement, and the right to liberty and participation in public affairs, among others. While restrictions on some rights are acceptable during a state of emergency under international human rights law, the latter need to be respected by State Parties. Notably, the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) requires that restrictions on rights for reasons of public health or a state of emergency should be lawful, necessary and proportionate to achieve the objective, while the duration should be specified by law and subjected to review.
Related to this are issues around press freedom and access to information. A vibrant press serves not only as an information dissemination system, but also as an unparalleled early warning system for a society in times of emergency, sharpening focus on the severity of a problem and prompting an urgent government response. Increased and responsible media coverage and service play an indispensable role in informing the public and validating government pronouncements, especially in times of crisis. For these reasons, With limited civic space due to measures taken to combat the pandemic, there may be also an increase in protests and armed clashes between militias, civilians and security forces, in the absence of an inclusive political process to chart the way forward. This is likely to lead to further displacement among vulnerable communities, making the impact of exposure to an infectious disease all the more severe.
As a result, displaced persons at regional level will be at risk of not just violence and, thus, potentially further displacement, but also of being cut off from assistance if security concerns limit humanitarian access. Women and girls suffer disproportionately during such situations, as existing inequalities are magnified, and social networks break down, making them more vulnerable to sexual violence and exploitation.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching economic consequences beyond the spread of the disease itself and efforts to quarantine it. As the SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread around the globe, concerns have shifted from supply-side manufacturing issues to decreased business in the services sector.The pandemic caused the largest global recession in history, with more than a third of the global population at the time being placed on lockdown.
Supply shortages are expected to affect a number of sectors due to panic buying, increased usage of goods to fight the pandemic, and disruption to factories and logistics in mainland China. There have been instances of price gouging. There have been widespread reports of shortages of pharmaceuticals, with many areas seeing panic buying and consequent shortages of food and other essential grocery items. The technology industry, in particular, has been warning about delays to shipments of electronic goods.
Global stock markets fell on 24 February 2020 due to a significant rise in the number of COVID-19 cases outside mainland China. By 28 February 2020, stock markets worldwide saw their largest single-week declines since the 2008 financial crisis. Global stock markets crashed in March 2020, with falls of several percent in the world's major indices.
Possible instability generated by an outbreak and associated behavioral changes could result in temporary food shortages, price spikes, and disruption to markets. Such price rises would be felt most by vulnerable populations who depend on markets for their food as well as those already depending on humanitarian assistance to maintain their livelihoods and food access. As observed in the 2007–2008 food prices crisis, the additional inflationary effect of protectionist policies through import tariffs and export bans could cause a significant increase in the number of people facing severe food insecurity worldwide.
Amidst the recovery and containment, the world economic system is characterized as experiencing significant, broad uncertainty. Economic forecasts and consensus among Macroeconomics experts show significant disagreement on the overall extent, long-term effects and projected recovery. Risk assessments and contingency plans therefore must be taken with a grain of salt, given that there is a wide divergence of opinion.
CHAPTER FOUR
4. RECOMMENDATION CONCLUSION
4.1 RECOMMENDATION
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a massive economic shock across the world due to business interruptions and shutdowns from social-distancing measures. To evaluate the economic impact of COVID-19 on individuals, a qualitative and quantitative research is need more than this project to estimate the direct/indirect impact of distancing on household income, factor income, household welfare, household poverty, economic growth, GDP, savings, consumption, and poverty. This paper will be row material for researchers who focus on economical impacts of corona virus.
This development signals the essence of controlling population growth as it impedes economic growth and poverty alleviation. The study recommends that governments invest in health and education improvement and stimulate their economies to create employment that could propagate growth to improve poverty alleviation and economic growth stability, as well as the prevalence of conflicts, corruption and the rule of law. GDP per capita, real GDP growth and inflation are some of the economic variables considered in the Index. Financial variables contained in the Index account for exchange rate stability and international liquidity among others.
However, the severity of the economic impact is spatially heterogeneous, and certain communities are more affected than the average and could take more than a year to recover. Overall, this paper is a first step in qualifying the economical impacts of COVID-19 at world wide scale. This study can be extended to explore the impact of indirect macroeconomic effects, the role of uncertainty in households' decision-making and the potential effect of simultaneous exogenous shocks, the economic effects of any sector as a general.
4.2 CONCLUSION
The COVID-19 pandemic has been both a global health and a global economic challenge since its outbreak in December 2019. A mechanism to selectively support imports of strategic intermediate inputs, such as tax holidays, should be a priority for the government in its efforts to support local production. A drive to rebuild and expand the number of jobs available in the world’s economy could remain at risk during the pandemic, suggesting that the government should introduce alternative stimulus packages – in collaboration with the donor community.
The study's findings suggest that more investment should be channeled towards improvement in human development, specifically health, education, and employment creation to per capita income, translating into increased household consumption and firms' investment to propagate economic growth.
Moreover, governments should create significant fiscal space through fiscal and monetary policy support to stimulate the economies for economic recovery is a swift response (World Bank, 2020). A coordinated and comprehensive cross-country policy response is needed for useful and timely recovery (Chudik et al., 2020).In addition taking vaccine, safety protocols such as stringency, social distancing, and personal hygiene practices must be adhered to to save lives, improve health conditions, and save the economies to ensure poverty alleviation.
The global COVID-19 pandemic presents an adverse effect on economies, societies, and vulnerable people. Perhaps, governments, policymakers, and development partners need to tailor swift policies to ensure a robust and sustainable recovery. However, without pragmatic and emergency socio-economic responses, the pandemic's shocks will escalate the global woes, most importantly, endangering livelihoods and lives for a more extended period.
The study's limitation emanates from the unavailability of internet data daily of gross domestic product per capita andlack of finance and, which were used as the dependent variables. Moreover, other factors could affect the relationship between the pandemic and the global economy; hence future studies should introduce variables that can intervene in that relationship. Also, the situation of some countries has changed since this study was conducted. Therefore, the study's time span is a possible limitation that could not curtail the whole dynamics of the pandemic situations.
In the discussion of results, we reiterate that our estimates do not reflect an assessment of the full impact of COVID pandemic on the world economy, but only related to the potential effects through COVID-19 related shocks to remittances, export demand, and strategic imports. It is understood that the pandemic has directly affected private – such as bars and restaurants – and public – such as education and public administration – sector operations. Further, the model estimates of the economic costs are the effects in the absence of any policy responses that the government, in collaboration with other development agents, is taking.
A range of policy responses is important both in the short term as well as in the coming years. In the short term, central banks and treasuries need to make sure that disrupted economies continue to function while the virus outbreak continues. In the face of real and financial stress, there is a critical role for governments. While cutting interest rates is a possible response for central banks, the shock is not simply a demand management problem but a multi-faceted crisis that will require monetary, fiscal and health policy responses. Quarantining affected people and reducing large-scale social interaction is an effective response. Wide dissemination of good hygiene practices, as outlined in Levine and McKibbin (2020), can be a low-cost and highly effective response that can reduce the extent of contagion and therefore reduce the social and economic cost.
The longer-term responses are even more important. Despite the potential loss of life and the large-scale disruption to a large number of people, many governments have been reluctant to invest sufficiently in their health care systems, let alone public health systems in less-developed countries where many infectious diseases are likely to originate. Experts have warned, and continue to warn, that zoonotic diseases will continue to pose a threat to the lives of millions of people, with potentially major disruption to an integrated world economy. The idea that any country can be an island in an integrated global economy has been proven wrong by the latest outbreak of COVID-19. Global cooperation, especially in the sphere of public health and economic development, is essential. All major countries need to participate actively. It is too late to act once the disease has taken hold in many other countries and to attempt to close borders once a pandemic has started.
A range of policy responses will be required both in the short term as well as in the coming years. In the short term, central banks and Treasuries need to make sure that disrupted economies continue to function while the disease outbreak continues. In the face of real and financial stress, there is a critical role for governments. While cutting interest rates is a possible response for central banks, the shock is not only a demand management problem but a multifaceted crisis that will require monetary, fiscal and health policy responses. Quarantining affected people and reducing large scale social interaction is an effective response. Wide dissemination of good hygiene practices as outlined in Levine and McKibbin (2020) can be a low cost and highly effective response that can reduce the extent of contagion and therefore reduce the social and economic cost.
The longer-term responses are even more important. Despite the potential loss of life and the possible large-scale disruption to a large number of people, many governments have been reluctant to invest sufficiently in their health care systems, let alone public health systems in less developed countries where many infectious diseases are likely to originate. Experts have warned and continue to warn that zoonotic diseases will continue to pose a threat to the lives of millions of people with potentially major disruption to an integrated world economy. The idea that any country can be an island in an integrated global economy is proven wrong by the latest outbreak of COVID-19. Global cooperation, especially in the sphere of public health and economic development, is essential. All major countries need to participate actively. It is too late to act once the disease has taken hold in many other countries and attempt to close borders once a pandemic has started.
Poverty kills poor people, but the outbreak of COVID-19 shows that if diseases are generated in poor countries due to overcrowding, poor public health and interaction with wild animals, these diseases can kill people of any socioeconomic group in any society. There needs to be vastly more investment in public health and development in the richest but also, and especially, in the poorest countries. This study indicates the possible costs that can be avoided through global cooperative investment in public health in all countries. We have known this critical policy intervention for decades, yet politicians continue to ignore the scientific evidence on the role of public health in improving the quality of life and as a driver of economic growth.
The paper aimed to estimate the impact COVID-19 on the world’s economy. The paper established that, indeed, the impact of the virus is felt in the various sectors of the economy. The informal sector, although not formally recorded as a contributor to GDP, it was established that there are significant impacts on this sector emanating from the daily loss of income due to lockdown measures. The loss of income directly affect employment in the country since these people become temporarily unemployed, thus a reduction in domestic consumption.
Other sectors established to have been severely affected are tourism and transport, since the travel bans and closure of the boarders, ports and airports. The construction sector is also among those severely affected by the lockdown and the ripple effects from limited supply of construction materials. There were, however, some sectors regarded as winners during this period of the outbreak, and these are communication and technology, e-commerce and, partly, manufacturing.
Overall, the paper established that the impact of the COVID-19 may continue for reminder of 2021. If further established that, post 2021, recoveries may be slower until the time that entire domestic economy normalises and the rest of the world return to normal operations.
Workers employed in micro, small and medium-size enterprises (MSMEs) in the urban, informal, sector (manufacturing, construction, trading, retail, hospitality and tourism).
• Workers in industrial parks who are already laid off or in danger of losing their jobs.
• Farmers/pastoralists and households in areas at-risk of increasing food insecurity (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).
• Frontline health system workers.
• Women in the urban informal sector and employed in industrial parks.
• Children of school-going age who are from poor, food insecure households. • Particularly vulnerable children and adolescents (e.g. urban street children).
• The vulnerable, especially in urban informal settlements and slums.
• Groups with specific vulnerabilities (persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), persons with disabilities (PWDs), older persons, the homeless).
• IDPs, refugees, returnees/relocatees and returning migrants.
• Urban informal settlements and slum areas.
• Developing states (DRS): Poor, developing countries
• MSMEs in supply chains in construction, manufacturing, agro-industry, hospitality, tourism, and retail.
• MSMEs in supply chains for agricultural and horticultural exports as well as production + marketing of critical food crops.
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